Uganda Food Security Outlook Update, April 2021 – In Karamoja, the crisis (IPC Phase 3) will likely persist in August due to a delay in cultivation – Burundi

KEY MESSAGES

• Delayed and below average cumulative precipitation delayed planting by at least three weeks in northern and parts of eastern Uganda. Near-average precipitation is forecast for May and is likely to support the development of late-maturing crops. However, the timing of the first season cereal and pulse harvests will likely be delayed until early July, and overall production is expected to vary from sub-region to sub-region depending on local quantity and location. distribution of precipitation. Subnational production deficits are likely in northern and eastern Uganda, where rainfall may not be evenly distributed throughout the crop cycle.

• Minimum results (IPC Phase 1) are expected at least until September in most bimodal areas, due to 2020 carry-over stocks, below-average staple prices, low income. seasonal agricultural labor during the planting season from March to May and the average harvest expected in July. However, stress results (IPC Phase 2) are likely among households in flood-affected areas and some urban areas, where livelihood activities were significantly disrupted in 2020 and sources of income are still lower. to pre-pandemic levels.

• In Karamoja, a growing number of households are facing growing food consumption gaps and using negative livelihood coping strategies, increasing the proportion of the population that is impacted by the crisis (Phase 3 of CPI). While food prices are generally stable and below average in most benchmark markets, the wages of casual labor and the price of firewood, charcoal and goats are on the rise. decline, which translates into much lower than average terms of trade and a reduction in household purchasing power. To date, below-average rainfall has limited on-farm labor opportunities and delayed land preparation and planting, while others lack access to seeds.

• Planned and funded food aid (in cash and in kind) equivalent to a 60 percent ration supported the crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) Results in April. Subsequently, a planned disruption in food aid funding could lead to further reductions in rations and food security outcomes. Refugees with arable plots engage in plowing and planting activities, although some do not have access to inputs such as seeds, while others have yet to recover from the impacts of previous restrictions. movement of COVID-19 on sources of food and income. According to UNHCR / OPM, Uganda was hosting 1,470,858 refugees and asylum seekers as of March 31.

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